Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Harry Brown's Portfolio

Harry Browne constructed his bulletproof portfolio using US-based assets, with a 25% holding in each of the following assets: the S&P 500 index, US Treasury bonds, US money market funds and gold bullion. He tracked his results from 1970 to 2003. On 1 January 1970, the value of the portfolio was 100. By 31 Dec 2003, the portfolio had ballooned to 2026.

The bulletproof portfolio must be safe – The portfolio should insulate you from every possible economic future, be it periods of prosperity, recession, inflation or deflation.
The bulletproof portfolio must be stable – The portfolio shouldn’t gyrate wildly with the market. Your mood shouldn’t depend on the market.
The bulletproof portfolio must be simple – Maintaining the bulletproof portfolio should require very little of your time. You shouldn’t have to watch the market to know your money is working for you.

The Bulletproof Asset Allocation
Economic and corresponding market cycles generally move through four stages:
Prosperity
Inflation
Recession
Deflation
Each stage corresponds with the outperformance of a certain asset class.
Prosperity: Life is good. Stocks are up, business is thriving. Bonds are doing fairly well too, although less so than stocks. (Hold stocks)
Inflation: Prices are rising. The value of paper money falls and people turn to the second best alternative: gold. (Hold gold)
Recession: Cash is king. When everything else is falling in value, it outperforms by standing still. (Hold cash)
Deflation: Prices are falling. Interest rates loosen to stimulate spending. As interest rates fall, bond prices go up. (Hold bonds)

Portfolio suggested by fundsupermart
Stocks: The Schroder Global Smaller Cos Fund, 9 year track record.
Bonds: UOB United Global Bond SGD, 10 year track record.
Cash: LionGlobal SGD Money Market, 9 year track record.Gold:
Physical gold, in SGD.

read more at http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?articleNo=3466

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